Update 0700 GMT, September 24, 2015
Latest European model data says the expected low pressure area will develop near Little Andaman Island on September 29, 2015, that is on Tuesday. Initially it will move north then turn and make landfall into Andhra Pradesh on October 1, 2015. It will be a depression by then. It will move through Telangana and perhaps into either Madhya Pradesh or Vidarbha.
The system will be a big rainmaker so very heavy falls are expected in these states.
Update September 23, 2015
Forecast models are giving strong hints of a deep depression/tropical cyclone developing soon in the Bay of Bengal soon.
The expected system will start off as a low pressure area in the Andaman Sea on Monday, September 28, 2015. It will cross North Andaman Island, intensify iinto a deep depression or a cyclone and hit the Andhra coast near Visakhapatnam on October 2.
The threat is real as both tthe American and European models are supporting this scenario. The ECMWF expects a depression/low. The GFS is bullish on a deep depression/cyclone.
Latest ECMWF forecast says the expected Bay of Bengal storm is to be a depression. After Andhra it may head to Maharashtra, Gujarat. But too soon to say now.Keep in touch for updates.
This is where the storm will be born on Monday in the Andaman Sea.
No comments:
Post a Comment